After an encouraging year in 2012, the forecast for the construction industry in 2013 continues to look up, say local experts. The numbers don’t lie: we’re on an upward trend, with resource-based projects continuing to hold strong.

“We’re very bullish about the future for construction in British Columbia in 2013 right through to 2015, and most likely beyond,” says Keith Sashaw, president of the Vancouver Regional Construction Association. “A very positive indicator is the number of office towers in the downtown core—there are four underway. This hasn’t happened since the 1980s.”

The past year in B.C. saw work levels nearing the heights they were pre-recession, says Sashaw, and the stats tracked by the BC Construction Association concur. “We track the major projects inventory list in BC and that list is sitting around $240 billion,” says Manley McLachlan, the association’s president. “It’s an indication of the confidence that investors have in B.C.”

That trend seems to be echoed across the country. “An international report that was released in March 2011 called “Construction 2020” projects that Canada will have the fifth largest construction market in the world, next only to China, the U.S., India, and Japan,” says Michael Atkinson, president of the Canadian Construction Association. “Though some people think we’re going to surpass Japan and go in to the top four. We’re far beyond pre-recession levels.”

Resource-based projects are holding strong across the country, says Atkinson, though there are a few hiccups. “Manitoba’s been doing well in power generation projects, and Northern BC is really coming back,” he notes. “But there are some ups and downs—there are some projects being delayed, particularly in potash in Saskatchewan. But that’s more to do with the world supply and trying to create a more stable demand.

“But all predictions are that resource development in Canada is going to take off over the next two to three decades. Natural Resources Canada says that over the next 10 years, there’s going to be some 600 individual resource development projects underway or planned, worth over $650 billion dollars.”

Not surprisingly, those numbers are holding strong in the wall and ceiling industry. “We know that there are significant projects in the works,” says Murray Corey, executive director of the BC Wall and Ceiling Association. “We know that there are a lot of groundbreakings that are underway right now through this market. We have our old standby test of how many cranes we can see when we go downtown, and there are lots.”

Corey notes that commercial work has been busy in the Lower Mainland. “The thing about a lot of the projects here is that they’re multi-use,” he explains. “There are an awful lot of projects that have a commercial component in the lower levels and residential above. There are certainly still enormous amounts of multi-residential type units going up. It’s really mid boggling—everywhere you drive, wherever there’s a vacant lot with one getting built.”

What hasn’t changed, notes Corey, is the underbidding that started during the depths of the recession. “I still am hearing a combination of horror stories and nasty stories about fierce competitive bidding,” he says. “People trying to maintain work for their existing workforce and sharpening their pencils. The really horrible stories are where the numbers don’t make any sense. And what that tells you is that the normal, regular type guys who wouldn’t do that are coming in with really barely marginal mark-ups.”

Of course, the shortage of skilled workers continues to be a concern for the BCWCA, notes Corey. “It’s been slow for apprenticeship training in the last couple of years,” he says. “Our experience is that, during this past downturn in this industry, a lot of younger apprentices have left the trade looking for work elsewhere.”

In fact, the construction industry is projected to see a shortfall of up to 320,000 workers in the next five to 10 years nationally (58,000 in B.C.), in part due to retirement of skilled workers, but also due to a booming industry that has more work than workers.

The BC Construction Association’s McLachlan says it’s a real concern for the industry as a whole, but that it’s something that everyone needs to solve together. “What’s evident to me is that there’s no magic bullet,” says McLachlan, “but to successfully conquer the skills shortage issue, individual companies need to take on accountability and ownership of the problem. Government investment in trades training, and changes to the immigration process are part of the answer, but the issue needs to be conquered by individual companies.”

For now, Western Canada continues to be part of a rosy picture for a national industry that’s looking strong in the years to come. “For 2012, Stats Canada predicts that total investment in construction is going to be about $282 billion dollars for 2012,” says Atkinson. “That means in 2013 we’re going to hit $300 billion—that’s exactly double the industry’s output for 2004. In less than nine years, the industry has doubled its total volume.

Even if you factor in inflation, that’s still something to write home about. Everything seems to be saying that Canada’s the country to be in, and the construction industry is the industry to be in.”